CategoriesNews & Blog

The Shopping Center Isn’t Dead. It Just Needed Better Tenants.

For the better part of a decade, the retail real estate industry sat through an extended funeral that never quite concluded. “Retail apocalypse” became the phrase of record. Anchor tenants filed for bankruptcy in waves: Sears, JCPenney, Pier 1, and Tuesday Morning. Vacancy rates climbed. Investors pulled back. Journalists wrote obituaries for the American shopping center with the confidence of people who hadn’t visited one in a while.

Here’s what they missed: the shopping center wasn’t dying. It was being filtered.

The centers that struggled deserved to struggle. They were built around a tenancy model that prioritized lease volume over experience, treated retail as a warehouse function rather than a community one, and offered no answer to the convenience that e-commerce delivered at scale. But the centers that invested in their tenant mix, physical environment, and role in the surrounding community? Those didn’t just survive. They’re outperforming.

What the Data Actually Shows

The headline vacancy numbers from the peak of the so-called apocalypse masked a more nuanced story. Yes, enclosed-mall vacancies climbed. CoStar data showed regional mall vacancy rates hitting approximately 11.4% in 2022, the highest in decades. But strip centers, open-air lifestyle centers, and well-curated neighborhood retail told a different story entirely. According to CBRE’s 2023 U.S. Retail Outlook, availability rates for neighborhood and community centers dropped to their lowest levels since 2007, finishing the year near 10.2%, driven by sustained demand from service-oriented and experiential tenants filling the void left by struggling big-box chains.

The market wasn’t rejecting retail real estate. It was rejecting bad retail real estate.

And perhaps the most clarifying data point: e-commerce, despite its explosive growth, has plateaued as a share of total retail sales. The U.S. Census Bureau consistently reports that e-commerce accounts for roughly 15–16% of total retail sales, significant but far from the full displacement story that dominated the narrative a decade ago. The other 84% still happens in physical space. The question was never whether people would stop shopping in person. It was whether landlords would evolve their properties to give them a reason to show up.

The Tenant Revolution

The transformation happening across well-managed retail centers right now is a tenant story. The operators who are filling vacancies and driving traffic aren’t the ones from the legacy retail playbook. They’re fitness studios, medical and dental practices, urgent care providers, specialty grocery concepts, chef-driven restaurants, pickleball facilities, and local boutique operators who understand that their physical space is their brand.

This shift has been staggering in scale. Healthcare-related tenants, including urgent care clinics, physical therapy practices, and dental groups, have become among the most active retail leasing categories nationwide. JLL reported that healthcare tenants accounted for nearly 25% of all new retail leasing activity in 2023, a figure unimaginable in 2005. These tenants generate steady foot traffic, maintain strong credit profiles, and serve non-discretionary demand that no e-commerce platform can replicate.

Food and beverages have undergone a parallel transformation. Regional and local restaurant concepts are outpacing national chains in leasing velocity. According to the National Restaurant Association, independent restaurant operators account for approximately 67% of all U.S. restaurant locations. Landlords who once chased national credit tenants are increasingly recognizing that a beloved local operator with community loyalty drives stickier traffic than a chain with 20 other locations in the market.

The Experience Imperative

None of this is accidental. The retail centers performing today have made a deliberate bet on experience, on the idea that a shopping center’s job is no longer to aggregate products but to aggregate reasons to be there.

That means design matters. A 2022 Placer.ai study found that open-air retail centers with dedicated food-and-beverage clusters drove 34% more repeat visits per quarter than centers without them. It means programming matters, with events, markets, fitness classes, and community gatherings that give the center a presence in the neighborhood’s weekly rhythm. And it means tenant curation matters more than almost anything else. One wrong tenant, a use that generates no traffic, no energy, and no reason for a neighboring tenant to benefit, can hollow out a center’s momentum faster than vacancy can.

The landlords winning right now are operators, not just owners. They think about their tenant mix the way a hotel operator thinks about its food-and-beverage concept, as an integral part of the experience, not an afterthought.

The Opportunity Ahead

The filtered landscape over the past decade has left a significant runway for well-capitalized, operationally sophisticated retail owners. Distressed or undermanaged centers in strong demographic markets offer some of the most compelling repositioning opportunities in commercial real estate today. The physical infrastructure is often sound, and location fundamentals haven’t changed. What’s needed is a curation strategy, a capital commitment to the physical environment, and the patience to build a tenant ecosystem rather than simply fill square footage.

The shopping center isn’t dead. It just needed someone to take it seriously again.

CategoriesNews & Blog

The Rise of Experience-Based Retail: Why Shopping Centers Need More Than Just Stores

The days of shopping centers serving as mere collections of retail storefronts are fading fast. Today’s most successful commercial developments are becoming vibrant community destinations where people come to experience, connect, and gather, not just to shop.

As developers and investors in California’s retail landscape, we’re witnessing a fundamental shift in what draws people out of their homes and into commercial spaces. Understanding this evolution isn’t just about staying relevant; it’s about creating places that genuinely serve the communities we build in.

The Amazon Effect Changed Everything

Let’s address the elephant in the room: e-commerce fundamentally altered retail. When consumers can order virtually anything with a few clicks and have it delivered to their doorstep, the value proposition of physical retail spaces must evolve. We can’t compete on convenience alone anymore.

But here’s what online shopping can’t replicate: the experience of being somewhere. The feeling of discovery. The spontaneity of trying something new. The simple pleasure of sharing a meal with friends or watching your kids play while you grab a coffee. These human experiences became the new currency of successful retail development.

What Makes a Destination?

The most successful retail developments we’ve seen and built share common characteristics that go far beyond traditional tenant mixes. They’re designed on the understanding that people seek experiences, not just transactions.

First, they integrate food and beverage as cornerstones, not afterthoughts. Drive-thru coffee shops like Dutch Bros and Starbucks create daily rituals for communities. Restaurants, ranging from quick-service options like Habit Burger to sit-down establishments, give people reasons to linger, meet friends, and return frequently. Food isn’t just another tenant category; it’s often the primary draw that makes everything else work.

Entertainment and recreation components have become equally essential. Whether it’s a family entertainment center, fitness studios, or outdoor gathering spaces with events and programming, these elements turn a shopping trip into an outing. They give families reasons to spend hours, not minutes, at a development.

Green spaces and outdoor areas designed for community gatherings have proven invaluable. In our Roseville Junction project, we’ve prioritized creating spaces where the community can come together for events, farmers’ markets, or simply to enjoy being outdoors. These aren’t decorative elements; they’re fundamental to the development’s purpose.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Experience-based retail isn’t just a feel-good concept; it’s smart business. When we create destinations rather than shopping centers, we see increased dwell time, which directly correlates with higher spending. A customer who comes for coffee, stays for lunch, then browses a few shops while their kids play generates far more economic activity than someone making a single-purpose shopping trip.

Mixed-use developments also create natural cross-traffic among tenants. Parents who drop off their children at daycare become regular customers at nearby coffee shops. Hotel guests at properties like ours in Roseville explore the surrounding retail and dining options. Office workers on lunch breaks frequent quick-service restaurants. This ecosystem effect makes every tenant more successful.

From an investment perspective, experience-based developments are more resilient. When a retail center is valued for the overall experience rather than any single anchor tenant, it’s better insulated from market shifts. If one restaurant closes, the development’s appeal remains because people come for the destination itself.

Lessons from the Field

Through our work across California and Nevada, we’ve learned that successful experience-based retail requires planning from day one. You can’t simply add a few restaurants to a traditional shopping center and call it experiential. The entire development must be designed as a cohesive destination.

Site planning matters immensely. Wide sidewalks, comfortable outdoor seating, intuitive traffic flow, and ample parking all contribute to whether people perceive a space as welcoming. We’ve found that creating distinct zones, such as a coffee-and-breakfast area separate from evening dining, or family-friendly spaces separate from professional services, helps visitors navigate and discover the development naturally.

Tenant curation is equally critical. We’re not just filling spaces; we’re crafting an experience. The right mix creates synergy, where the whole exceeds the sum of its parts. A great coffee shop next to a daycare center next to a yoga studio creates a morning-routine ecosystem. A brewpub near a family entertainment venue and evening dining options creates a different kind of destination for different dayparts.

Looking Ahead

The trend toward experience-based retail isn’t slowing; it’s accelerating. As younger generations prioritize experiences over possessions and as remote work continues reshaping how people structure their days, demand for well-designed community gathering spaces will only grow.

The developments that will thrive in the coming decades won’t be the ones with the most square footage or the biggest anchor tenants. They’ll be the ones that truly understand why people leave their homes and what they’re seeking when they do. They’ll be places that feel less like shopping centers and more like the heart of a community, because that’s exactly what they are.

For developers, this shift presents both a challenge and an opportunity. It demands more creativity, more careful planning, and a deeper understanding of community needs. But when done right, experience-based retail doesn’t just generate returns; it creates something genuinely valuable for the communities we serve. That’s the kind of development worth building.

 

Get in touch

phone

(415) 491 – 1500

4302 Redwood Hwy Suite 200

San Rafael, CA 94903

email

info@lrecompanies.com

Get in touch

phone

(415) 491 – 1500

4302 Redwood Hwy Suite 200

San Rafael, CA 94903

email

info@lrecompanies.com

about us

The LRE & Co is a family organization that has been in real estate development, construction and the food and beverage businesses since 1999. It has been present in major markets throughout northern California and northwest Nevada.

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