At LRE & Co, we develop hospitality properties, as well as retail and mixed-use spaces, throughout Northern California. When you’re in the business of creating places where people stay, you learn to interpret the market not through press releases but by understanding what truly works in practice. 

The California hospitality market in 2025 tells a nuanced story—one that’s neither the doom-and-gloom narrative some headlines suggest nor the triumphant recovery others celebrate. It’s more complex than that, and understanding this complexity is essential for anyone investing capital in this space. 

The California Reality: Strong Fundamentals, Stubborn Challenges 

California’s hotel industry market size reached $37 billion in 2025, growing at an average annual rate of 12.4% since 2020. That sounds impressive until you look at what’s really happening underneath those numbers. 

California hotel sales volume fell by 15.3% in 2024 compared to 2023, while the number of individual sales decreased by 7.5%. More worrying, foreclosure activity surged significantly—from 53 notices of default filed in December 2023 to 86 in December 2024. The gap between buyer and seller expectations remains large, with many sellers still hoping for 2021-2022 pricing that today’s market cannot support. 

This gap presents opportunities for well-funded buyers willing to wait, but it also indicates real struggles in parts of the market. Hotels that succeeded during the post-pandemic boom are finding that 2025 requires different approaches than 2022 did. 

Regional Performance: The Tale of Three Markets 

Southern California’s three primary markets—San Diego, Los Angeles, and Orange County—each tell distinct stories. 

San Diego leads the state with a 12-month average occupancy of 73.8% through June 2025, consistently outperforming other California markets. RevPAR grew 2.4%, exceeding the national average of 1.5%. The market benefits from diverse demand generators: leisure attractions such as the San Diego Zoo and beaches, major conventions including Comic-Con with 135,000+ attendees, and strong weekday business from the life sciences, healthcare, and military sectors. 

But even San Diego faces challenges. The large 1,600-room Gaylord Pacific Resort opened in May 2025, adding significant new supply. Leisure travel, which accounts for about 55% of room nights, experienced modest declines during the summer as budget-conscious travelers chose vacation rentals or alternative destinations. 

Los Angeles saw RevPAR grow 5% in Q1 2025, driven in part by displaced residents and recovery teams from January’s wildfires. While the fires didn’t damage hotels or major attractions, this created unusual demand that may not persist. Inbound international travel remains below pre-pandemic levels, accounting for under 20% of hotel room demand, compared with nearly 25% in 2019. 

Orange County has effectively stopped new construction due to high costs, creating supply constraints that support existing properties but limit market growth. 

The Western States: Las Vegas Sets Records, Arizona Builds Momentum 

Las Vegas continues its impressive run. The market welcomed 40.8 million visitors in 2024, and while occupancy at 83.6% still falls short of pre-pandemic levels, ADR reached $193.16, and RevPAR hit $161.48—record figures for the third year in a row. Gaming revenue for Clark County totaled $13.5 billion, setting another annual record. 

What Vegas shows is that experience-driven hospitality can charge premium rates even when occupancy isn’t fully back. The new developments, attractions, and events—like the Sphere and major sporting events—generate demand that supports higher prices. 

Arizona’s hospitality industry is flourishing in ways that deserve more recognition. The state predicts nearly 6,000 new hospitality and entertainment jobs will be created by 2036. Tucson’s trailing 12-month RevPAR increased impressively by 7.9%, with ADR rising 6.3%. Arizona’s favorable business environment, expanding population, and major events make it an increasingly appealing alternative to California’s higher costs. 

The Cost Crisis: Wages, PIPs, and Margin Compression 

Here’s the uncomfortable truth about California hospitality in 2025: operating costs are rising faster than revenue. 

San Diego faces a potential increase in the hotel minimum wage to $25 an hour if pending legislation passes. Property Improvement Plans (PIPs), required by franchisors, now cost between $35,000 and $40,000 per room for mid-market, select-service hotels—a 30% to 40% rise from pre-COVID levels. These aren’t optional expenses; they are requirements for maintaining franchise agreements. 

Meanwhile, increases in labor, insurance, utilities, and property tax costs are outpacing RevPAR growth across the industry, leading to shrinking margins for operators. Hospitality is unique among commercial real estate asset classes in requiring existing owners to reinvest millions of dollars into properties to maintain current NOI levels. 

In California specifically, this cost burden, along with the state’s regulatory complexity, makes development and operations more challenging than in neighboring states. It’s not insurmountable, but it requires disciplined underwriting and realistic pro formas. 

The Transaction Market: Waiting Game Continues 

Hotel transaction activity has remained subdued throughout 2025. In the past 12 months, hotel transaction volume declined nearly 75%. Since Los Angeles’s “Mansion Tax” took effect in April 2023, only four hotels in the LA market traded for more than $20 million, two of which were tax-exempt. 

This creates a standoff. Sellers remember peak pricing from 2021-2022. Buyers see compressed margins, rising costs, and uncertain demand. CoStar Analytics forecasts a 75 to 125 basis-point increase in cap rates over the next 12 months, making conditions more attractive for buyers than for sellers. 

For developers and investors, this indicates that 2025-2026 might offer acquisition opportunities—especially for distressed assets or properties where owners can’t meet PIP requirements—but only if you’re prepared to invest capital in repositioning and maintain realistic expectations about stabilized returns. 

What’s Actually Working: The 2025 Playbook 

Based on our experience and market observation, here’s what performs in 2025’s California hospitality market: 

The luxury and upper-upscale segments show resilience. Premium properties that deliver exceptional experiences continue commanding strong rates. Luxury RevPAR is up 2.9% year-to-date nationally, significantly outperforming other segments. 

Experience-driven properties outperform commodity hotels. Wellness programs, unique F&B offerings, and memorable amenities create differentiation that justifies premium pricing. Two-thirds of people worldwide now expect high-quality, personalized, and wellness-enhancing experiences to be integrated into every space they engage with. 

Suburban and resort locations benefit from sustained leisure demand. While urban business travel recovery remains incomplete, drive-to destinations and vacation properties continue to perform steadily. 

Markets with diverse demand generators weather volatility better. San Diego succeeds because it balances leisure, group, corporate, and military segments. Properties dependent on single-demand sources face a higher risk. 

Technology-enabled operations improve margins. AI-driven revenue management, contactless services, and operational automation help offset rising labor costs. The hospitality industry is rapidly adopting these tools out of necessity, not preference. 

Looking Ahead: Cautious Optimism with Eyes Wide Open 

California’s hospitality fundamentals remain stable, with low vacancy rates and steady—if modest—rent growth. Visit California forecasts stronger performance outside gateway markets, with 2.2% revenue growth compared to 1.8% in gateway regions. Significant events in 2026—San Francisco hosting the Super Bowl, Los Angeles and San Francisco hosting FIFA World Cup matches—are expected to boost demand. 

But the industry faces a “two-speed recovery,” with luxury and upscale properties thriving while midscale and economy segments struggle. This bifurcation will likely persist through 2026, creating both opportunities and risks depending on your market position. 

At LRE & Co, we’re approaching California hospitality with measured optimism. The market isn’t broken, but it’s demanding. Success requires: 

• Disciplined underwriting that reflects actual operating costs, not pre-pandemic assumptions 

• Experience-focused positioning that gives guests reasons to choose you over alternatives 

• Operational excellence because margins for error have vanished 

• Realistic timelines for both development and stabilization 

The developers and operators who succeed in 2025 are those who’ve adjusted their strategies to current realities instead of waiting for yesterday’s market to return. They’ve accepted that premium markets require premium execution, and they have built teams and systems equipped to deliver it. 

California hospitality isn’t easy in 2025, but for those willing to do the hard work, invest in quality, and execute with discipline, opportunity still exists. You have to earn it more than you did a few years ago. 

And frankly, that’s how it should be.