Earlier this year, I wrote about Mayor Daniel Lurie’s innovative approach to city leadership, as a problem-solver who spent twenty years delivering results before entering politics. Now, nine months into his term, we’re seeing early signs that his action-driven style is making a difference in San Francisco’s recovery.
The story about San Francisco has mostly been negative for years. Empty offices. Struggling retail. Safety concerns. Bureaucratic gridlock. These issues are real and far from resolved. However, something is starting to shift, and as someone involved in projects across Northern California, I observe these changes with cautious optimism.
The Numbers Tell a Story
Let’s focus on what’s measurable. Muni Metro ridership has risen to about 60% of pre-pandemic levels, and office attendance has reached roughly 52%. While still below our target, it is trending in the right direction.
The apartment vacancy rate has fallen to 5.1% as of Q2 2025, the lowest in over a decade. Vacancy reached nearly 10-11% during the peak of urban out-migration in 2020. The current rate is below the 2019 pre-pandemic level, showing that more people are choosing to live in San Francisco again.
In March 2025, nearly 120 new restaurants and bars opened in the city. That’s not a sign of a declining downtown; that’s entrepreneurs investing their capital, demonstrating that San Francisco’s future is worth betting on.
Private Capital Steps Up
One of Mayor Lurie’s key efforts has been securing support from the private sector. The Downtown Development Corporation, a coalition formed this year with the mayor’s support, has raised $40 million to revitalize the city’s urban core.
The money will fund initiatives that make streets safer and cleaner, help small businesses thrive, and breathe life into public spaces. Critics rightfully question whether private philanthropy can replace public investment. The answer is no — it can’t and shouldn’t. But during a budget crisis, when San Francisco faces a $876 million deficit, private capital can help accelerate recovery while the city restructures its finances. It’s a bridge, not a permanent solution.
Cutting Red Tape That Strangled Business
Perhaps the most important long-term reform is PermitSF. Mayor Lurie signed five ordinances from his PermitSF legislative package in July 2025, making significant structural changes to help small business owners and property owners obtain permits more easily and efficiently.
As a developer, I cannot stress this enough. San Francisco’s permitting process has long been notoriously dysfunctional—a maze of overlapping jurisdictions, unclear requirements, and months-long delays that often kill projects before they even begin. Every month of delay costs money, and every ambiguous regulation adds extra risk. In the end, developers and businesses tend to look elsewhere.
PermitSF features transparent timelines, accountability for city departments, and improved customer service. These might seem like basic government functions, but in San Francisco, they symbolize revolutionary change. The message is clear: San Francisco is open for business.
Downtown Shows Signs of Life
Union Square and downtown have seen promising progress. Crime rates are dropping, tourism is rising, and demand for office space is slowly rebounding. Large companies are growing. Strava recently announced plans for a bigger downtown headquarters, and Notion is ready to begin its 105,000-square-foot lease on Market Street.
These aren’t tentative bets. These are long-term commitments that demonstrate confidence in San Francisco’s future. When major tech companies sign large leases in a market with 35% office vacancy, they’re making a statement about where they believe the city is heading.
The city is also creating innovative solutions for vacant office spaces. Efforts to convert commercial properties into residential units, supported by voter-approved tax waivers and simplified building codes, could help solve both the office vacancy issue and the housing shortage.
What This Means for Real Estate Development
From a developer’s perspective, these changes are important. We make investment decisions years in advance. We need predictability, realistic timelines, and confidence that the city supports our success.
For too long, San Francisco sent the wrong message. Every project felt like a battle. The regulatory environment wasn’t just tough; it was often hostile.
Mayor Lurie’s administration is shifting that tone. The focus is on substance, streamlined permitting, private investment partnerships, and core priorities like safety and cleanliness. But the tone also plays a role. When the government treats businesses as partners instead of adversaries, it opens up new possibilities that weren’t there before.
The Reality Check
Let’s be clear: San Francisco isn’t “back.” The office market still faces serious challenges. The budget deficit remains huge. Homelessness and drug addiction continue to destroy lives and neighborhoods. Many structural issues will take years, not months, to fix.
But we’re witnessing something we haven’t seen in years: momentum. Not hype, not promises—real progress on fundamental issues. Business openings, private investment, regulatory reform, rising occupancy, and companies expanding.
Recovery isn’t a straight path. There will be setbacks, but the overall direction matters, and right now, it’s finally heading in the right way.
Looking Forward
San Francisco’s recovery will take time, likely years rather than just a few quarters. The city needs consistent leadership, ongoing private-sector cooperation, and realistic expectations for timelines.
But something fundamental has shifted. There’s new energy around problem-solving that wasn’t present before. People are more willing to try new approaches, cut through red tape, and work together across sectors. Capital is moving toward solutions rather than away from problems.
For those of us involved in commercial real estate development, these are the conditions under which we must allocate capital and accept risks. Not perfection — we never reach perfection. But we need guidance, momentum, and a city government that supports business success.
San Francisco still has a long way to go, but for the first time in years, it feels like the city is making progress. That’s worth noting, worth supporting, and worth building on.
The comeback isn’t finished yet, but it’s started.